Wahlen Prognose Sitzverteilung Kantone Test

Wahlen 2023

Szenario 1

kanton partei sitze_1 delta lv sitze_lv_0 sitze_lv_1 sitze_0 sitze_def
ZH SVP 10 A 14.442 15 10.229 10
ZH FDP 5 A 14.442 15 4.657 5
ZH   0 A 14.442 15 0.076
ZH   0 A 14.442 15 0.033
ZH   0 A 14.442 15 0.005
ZH SP 8 1 B 11.647 12 7.842 8
ZH GPS 4 -1 B 11.647 12 3.684 4
ZH FGA 0 B 11.647 12 0.360 0
ZH PdA/Sol. 0 B 11.647 12 0.113 0
ZH GLP 5 -1 C 4.652 5 4.785 4
ZH   0 C 4.652 5 0.128
ZH   0 C 4.652 5 0.060
ZH   0 C 4.652 5 0.020
ZH   0 C 4.652 5 0.007
ZH Mitte 3 2 2 2.933 3 3.000
ZH EVP 1 D 1.432 1 0.714 1
ZH   0 D 1.432 1 0.142
ZH   0 D 1.432 1 0.051
ZH   0 D 1.432 1 0.039
ZH   0 D 1.432 1 0.022
ZH   0 D 1.432 1 0.013
ZH   0 D 1.432 1 0.008
ZH   0 D 1.432 1 0.007
ZH   0 D 1.432 1 0.004
ZH   0 E 0.894 0 0.000
ZH EDU 0 E 0.894 0 0.000 1
ZH SD 0 E 0.894 0 0.000 0
BE SVP 8 1 A 9.227 10 8.028 8
BE FDP 2 A 9.227 10 1.951 1
BE   0 A 9.227 10 0.021
BE SP 5 1 B 7.545 8 5.263 5
BE GPS 3 -1 B 7.545 8 2.737 3
BE GLP 2 -1 C 3.663 3 2.062 3
BE EVP 1 C 3.663 3 0.836 1
BE   0 C 3.663 3 0.103
BE Mitte 2 2 1.953 2 2.000
BE EDU 1 D 1.394 1 0.677 1
BE   0 D 1.394 1 0.110
BE   0 D 1.394 1 0.067
BE SD 0 D 1.394 1 0.058 0
BE   0 D 1.394 1 0.057
BE   0 D 1.394 1 0.029
BE   0 D 1.394 1 0.002
BE   0 E 0.218 0 0.000
BE PdA/Sol. 0 9 0.000 0 0.000
LU SP 2 1 B 2.547 3 1.447 2
LU GPS 1 B 2.547 3 0.860 1
LU GLP 0 -1 B 2.547 3 0.693 0
LU Mitte 3 2 2.511 3 3.000
LU SVP 2 A 2.387 2 1.944 2
LU   0 A 2.387 2 0.035
LU   0 A 2.387 2 0.016
LU   0 A 2.387 2 0.006
LU FDP 1 C 1.395 1 0.995 1
LU   0 C 1.395 1 0.005
LU EVP 0 D 0.152 0 0.000 0
LU   0 D 0.152 0 0.000
LU SD 0 14 0.007 0 0.000 0
UR Mitte 1 2 0.638 1 1.000
UR SVP 0 4 0.362 0 0.000 0
UR SP 0 3 0.000 0 0.000
SZ SVP 2 A 1.792 2 1.601 2
SZ   0 A 1.792 2 0.399
SZ FDP 1 D 0.786 1 1.000 1
SZ Mitte 1 2 0.703 1 1.000
SZ SP 0 B 0.546 0 0.000 0
SZ GPS 0 B 0.546 0 0.000 0
SZ EVP 0 C 0.150 0 0.000 0
SZ GLP 0 C 0.150 0 0.000 0
SZ   0 E 0.023 0 0.000
OW SVP 1 4 0.523 1 1.000 1
OW FDP 0 1 0.477 0 0.000 0
OW SP 0 3 0.000 0 0.000
OW Mitte 0 2 0.000 0 0.000
NW Mitte 1 1 2 0.453 1 1.000
NW SVP 0 -1 4 0.399 0 0.000 0
NW FDP 0 1 0.148 0 0.000 0
GL SVP 1 1 4 0.438 1 1.000 1
GL Mitte 0 -1 2 0.321 0 0.000
GL SP 0 3 0.241 0 0.000 0
GL GPS 0 13 0.000 0 0.000
ZG SVP 1 C 1.305 1 0.695 1
ZG FDP 0 C 1.305 1 0.298 0
ZG   0 C 1.305 1 0.007
ZG Mitte 1 2 0.748 1 1.000
ZG GPS 1 A 0.705 1 0.691 1
ZG SP 0 A 0.705 1 0.219 0
ZG   0 A 0.705 1 0.040
ZG EVP 0 A 0.705 1 0.022 0
ZG   0 A 0.705 1 0.015
ZG   0 A 0.705 1 0.013
ZG GLP 0 B 0.186 0 0.000 0
ZG   0 D 0.056 0 0.000
FR SP 2 D 2.457 3 1.759 1
FR GPS 1 D 2.457 3 1.012 1
FR CSP 0 D 2.457 3 0.212 0
FR   0 D 2.457 3 0.017
FR SVP 2 1 A 1.884 2 1.917 2
FR EDU 0 A 1.884 2 0.083 0
FR Mitte 1 -1 2 1.392 1 1.000
FR FDP 1 B 0.931 1 1.000 1
FR EVP 0 C 0.336 0 0.000 0
FR   0 C 0.336 0 0.000
FR GLP 0 C 0.336 0 0.000 0
SO SVP 2 B 1.845 2 1.868 2
SO   0 B 1.845 2 0.132
SO SP 1 D 1.589 2 1.302 1
SO GPS 1 D 1.589 2 0.698 1
SO Mitte 1 2 1.071 1 1.000
SO FDP 1 A 1.044 1 1.000 1
SO EVP 0 C 0.450 0 0.000 0
SO GLP 0 C 0.450 0 0.000 0
SO SD 0 14 0.000 0 0.000
BS SP 2 B 1.957 3 1.950 1
BS GPS 1 B 1.957 3 1.050 1
BS LPS 1 A 1.180 1 0.350 1
BS GLP 0 -1 A 1.180 1 0.310 1
BS FDP 0 A 1.180 1 0.234 0
BS EVP 0 A 1.180 1 0.075 0
BS   0 A 1.180 1 0.031
BS EDU 0 C 0.600 0 0.000 0
BS SVP 0 C 0.600 0 0.000 0
BS   0 C 0.600 0 0.000
BS Mitte 0 2 0.234 0 0.000
BS   0 D 0.029 0 0.000
BL SVP 3 1 A 3.019 4 2.680 2
BL FDP 1 A 3.019 4 1.320 1
BL SP 2 B 2.429 3 2.135 2
BL GPS 1 B 2.429 3 0.865 1
BL Mitte 0 -1 2 0.741 0 0.000
BL EVP 0 C 0.666 0 0.000 0
BL GLP 0 C 0.666 0 0.000 0
BL   0 D 0.142 0 0.000
BL EDU 0 D 0.142 0 0.000 0
BL   0 E 0.003 0 0.000
SH SVP 1 A 1.092 1 0.737 1
SH FDP 0 A 1.092 1 0.230 0
SH EDU 0 A 1.092 1 0.032 0
SH SP 1 B 0.664 1 0.851 1
SH GPS 0 B 0.664 1 0.149 0
SH GLP 0 C 0.191 0 0.000 0
SH EVP 0 C 0.191 0 0.000 0
SH Mitte 0 2 0.053 0 0.000
SH FGA 0 12 0.000 0 0.000
AR SVP 1 4 0.480 1 1.000 1
AR FDP 0 1 0.360 0 0.000 0
AR Mitte 0 2 0.160 0 0.000
AI Mitte 1 2 0.973 1 1.000
AI SVP 0 4 0.027 0 0.000 0
AI SP 0 3 0.000 0 0.000
SG SVP 5 1 A 4.276 5 4.839 5
SG EDU 0 A 4.276 5 0.161 0
SG SP 2 C 3.268 3 1.402 2
SG GPS 1 C 3.268 3 0.954 1
SG GLP 0 -1 C 3.268 3 0.644 0
SG Mitte 2 2 2.260 2 2.000
SG FDP 2 D 1.734 2 2.000 2
SG SD 0 E 0.289 0 0.000 0
SG   0 E 0.289 0 0.000
SG EVP 0 B 0.173 0 0.000 0
GR SVP 2 1 B 1.588 2 1.926 2
GR EDU 0 B 1.588 2 0.074 0
GR SP 2 C 1.480 2 1.200 1
GR GLP 0 C 1.480 2 0.422 0
GR GPS 0 C 1.480 2 0.354 0
GR   0 C 1.480 2 0.023
GR Mitte 1 2 1.193 1 1.000
GR FDP 0 -1 A 0.687 0 0.000 1
GR EVP 0 7 0.051 0 0.000 0
AG SVP 7 1 A 7.926 9 6.448 7
AG FDP 2 A 7.926 9 2.372 2
AG EDU 0 A 7.926 9 0.180 0
AG SP 3 B 5.126 5 2.563 3
AG GLP 1 B 5.126 5 1.326 1
AG GPS 1 B 5.126 5 1.111 1
AG Mitte 2 2 1.920 2 2.000
AG   0 C 0.765 0 0.000
AG EVP 0 -1 C 0.765 0 0.000 0
AG   0 D 0.245 0 0.000
AG PdA/Sol. 0 9 0.018 0 0.000 0
TG SVP 3 D 2.418 3 3.000 3
TG SP 1 C 1.572 1 0.391 1
TG GPS 0 -1 C 1.572 1 0.325 0
TG GLP 0 C 1.572 1 0.254 0
TG   0 C 1.572 1 0.030
TG Mitte 1 2 0.920 1 1.000
TG FDP 1 1 B 0.792 1 0.814 1
TG EVP 0 B 0.792 1 0.186 0
TG EDU 0 A 0.251 0 0.000 0
TG   0 A 0.251 0 0.000
TG   0 E 0.047 0 0.000
TI SVP 2 1 B 2.721 3 1.329 2
TI Lega 1 B 2.721 3 1.189 1
TI   0 B 2.721 3 0.482
TI SP 1 A 1.899 2 1.053 1
TI GPS 1 A 1.899 2 0.765 1
TI   0 A 1.899 2 0.182
TI FDP 2 D 1.692 2 2.000 2
TI Mitte 1 -1 2 1.414 1 1.000
TI GLP 0 C 0.207 0 0.000 0
TI   0 C 0.207 0 0.000
TI   0 E 0.066 0 0.000
TI EDU 0 16 0.000 0 0.000
TI PdA/Sol. 0 9 0.000 0 0.000
VD SP 5 B 8.345 9 5.179 6
VD GPS 3 -1 B 8.345 9 2.769 3
VD PdA/Sol. 1 1 B 8.345 9 0.890 0
VD   0 B 8.345 9 0.162
VD FDP 5 C 7.890 9 4.847 4
VD SVP 4 1 C 7.890 9 4.153 4
VD GLP 1 -1 D 1.432 1 1.000 1
VD Mitte 0 2 0.847 0 0.000
VD   0 A 0.369 0 0.000
VD EVP 0 A 0.369 0 0.000 0
VD EDU 0 16 0.117 0 0.000 0
VD SD 0 14 0.000 0 0.000
VS Mitte 3 2 2.831 3 3.000
VS SVP 2 C 1.958 2 2.000 2
VS SP 1 B 1.876 2 1.220 1
VS GPS 1 B 1.876 2 0.717 1
VS PdA/Sol. 0 B 1.876 2 0.063 0
VS FDP 1 D 1.173 1 1.000 1
VS GLP 0 E 0.163 0 0.000 0
VS CSP 0 8 0.000 0 0.000
NE SP 1 B 2.027 2 0.888 1
NE GPS 1 B 2.027 2 0.651 1
NE PdA/Sol. 0 -1 B 2.027 2 0.461 0
NE FDP 1 A 0.838 1 1.000 1
NE SVP 1 1 C 0.718 1 0.963 1
NE EDU 0 C 0.718 1 0.037 0
NE GLP 0 D 0.313 0 0.000 0
NE EVP 0 D 0.313 0 0.000 0
NE Mitte 0 2 0.103 0 0.000
GE FDP 2 A 5.230 6 2.157 2
GE SVP 2 A 5.230 6 2.102 2
GE MCR 2 2 A 5.230 6 1.693 2
GE   0 A 5.230 6 0.048
GE SP 3 1 D 4.746 5 2.320 3
GE GPS 2 -1 D 4.746 5 1.943 2
GE PdA/Sol. 0 -1 D 4.746 5 0.320 0
GE   0 D 4.746 5 0.185
GE   0 D 4.746 5 0.162
GE   0 D 4.746 5 0.036
GE   0 D 4.746 5 0.034
GE Mitte 1 2 0.979 1 1.000
GE GLP 0 -1 B 0.809 0 0.000 0
GE   0 C 0.237 0 0.000
GE EVP 0 C 0.237 0 0.000 0
GE EDU 0 16 0.000 0 0.000
JU SP 1 A 0.814 1 0.728 1
JU GPS 0 A 0.814 1 0.272 0
JU SVP 1 1 C 0.555 1 0.688 1
JU FDP 0 C 0.555 1 0.312 0
JU Mitte 0 -1 2 0.529 0 0.000
JU GLP 0 D 0.083 0 0.000 0
JU   0 D 0.083 0 0.000
JU EVP 0 B 0.018 0 0.000 0
JU CSP 0 8 0.000 0 0.000


kanton sitze_1_sum
ZH 36
BE 24
LU 9
UR 1
SZ 4
OW 1
NW 1
GL 1
ZG 3
FR 7
SO 6
BS 4
BL 7
SH 2
AR 1
AI 1
SG 12
GR 5
AG 16
TG 6
TI 8
VD 19
VS 8
NE 4
GE 12
JU 2
sitze_1_sum_sum
200

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