Wahlen Prognose Sitzverteilung Kantone

Wahlen 2023

NB: Projektion
Listenverbindungen der anderen Parteien (35) nicht berücksichtigt.

Legende:
lv Listenverbindung
sitze_lv_0
Bruchmandate Listenverbindung
sitze_lv_1 Zuteilung Listenverbindung
lv_0 Bruchmandate Listenverbindung nach Listen
sitze_lv Definitive Zuteilung Listenverbindung nach Listen
sitze_0 Bruchmandate Partei
sitze_1 Zuteilung Partei
sitze_alt Sitze bisher

Szenario 1

kanton	partei	sitze_1	delta	lv	sitze_lv_0	sitze_lv_1	sitze_0	sitze_def
ZH	SVP	10		A	14.331	15	10.307	10
ZH	FDP	5		A	14.331	15	4.693	5
ZH	SP	8	1	B	11.646	12	7.842	8
ZH	GPS	4	-1	B	11.646	12	3.684	4
ZH	FGA	0		B	11.646	12	0.360	0
ZH	PdA/Sol.	0		B	11.646	12	0.113	0
ZH	GLP	4	-2	C	4.452	4	4.000	4
ZH	Mitte	3	2	2	2.933	3	3.000
ZH	Andere	1	1	35	1.045	1	1.000	0
ZH	EVP	1		D	1.022	1	1.000	1
ZH	SD	0		E	0.571	0	0.000	0
ZH	EDU	0		E	0.571	0	0.000	1
BE	SVP	8	1	A	9.207	10	8.045	8
BE	FDP	2		A	9.207	10	1.955	1
BE	SP	5	1	B	7.545	8	5.263	5
BE	GPS	3	-1	B	7.545	8	2.737	3
BE	GLP	2	-1	C	3.538	3	2.135	3
BE	EVP	1		C	3.538	3	0.865	1
BE	Mitte	2		2	1.953	2	2.000
BE	EDU	1		D	1.025	1	0.921	1
BE	SD	0		D	1.025	1	0.079	0
BE	Andere	0		35	0.732	0	0.000	0
BE	PdA/Sol.	0		9	0.000	0	0.000
LU	SP	2	1	B	2.547	3	1.447	2
LU	GPS	1		B	2.547	3	0.860	1
LU	GLP	0	-1	B	2.547	3	0.693	0
LU	Mitte	3		2	2.511	3	3.000
LU	SVP	2		A	2.320	2	2.000	2
LU	FDP	1		C	1.388	1	1.000	1
LU	Andere	0		35	0.184	0	0.000	0
LU	EVP	0		D	0.042	0	0.000	0
LU	SD	0		14	0.007	0	0.000	0
UR	Mitte	1		2	0.624	1	1.000
UR	SVP	0		4	0.353	0	0.000	0
UR	Andere	0		35	0.023	0	0.000	0
UR	SP	0		3	0.000	0	0.000
SZ	SVP	2		A	1.434	2	2.000	2
SZ	FDP	1		D	0.786	1	1.000	1
SZ	Mitte	1		2	0.703	1	1.000
SZ	SP	0		B	0.546	0	0.000	0
SZ	GPS	0		B	0.546	0	0.000	0
SZ	Andere	0		35	0.381	0	0.000	0
SZ	EVP	0		C	0.150	0	0.000	0
SZ	GLP	0		C	0.150	0	0.000	0
OW	SVP	1		4	0.523	1	1.000	1
OW	FDP	0		1	0.477	0	0.000	0
OW	Mitte	0		2	0.000	0	0.000
OW	SP	0		3	0.000	0	0.000
OW	Andere	0		35	0.000	0	0.000
NW	Mitte	1	1	2	0.453	1	1.000
NW	SVP	0	-1	4	0.399	0	0.000	0
NW	FDP	0		1	0.148	0	0.000	0
GL	SVP	1	1	4	0.426	1	1.000	1
GL	Mitte	0	-1	2	0.312	0	0.000
GL	SP	0		3	0.234	0	0.000	0
GL	Andere	0		35	0.028	0	0.000	0
GL	GPS	0		13	0.000	0	0.000
ZG	SVP	1		C	1.296	1	0.700	1
ZG	FDP	0		C	1.296	1	0.300	0
ZG	Mitte	1		2	0.748	1	1.000
ZG	GPS	1		A	0.657	1	0.741	1
ZG	SP	0		A	0.657	1	0.235	0
ZG	EVP	0		A	0.657	1	0.024	0
ZG	GLP	0		B	0.186	0	0.000	0
ZG	Andere	0		35	0.113	0	0.000	0
FR	SP	2		D	2.443	3	1.769	1
FR	GPS	1		D	2.443	3	1.017	1
FR	CSP	0		D	2.443	3	0.213	0
FR	SVP	2	1	A	1.884	2	1.917	2
FR	EDU	0		A	1.884	2	0.083	0
FR	Mitte	1	-1	2	1.392	1	1.000
FR	FDP	1		B	0.931	1	1.000	1
FR	EVP	0		C	0.310	0	0.000	0
FR	GLP	0		C	0.310	0	0.000	0
FR	Andere	0		35	0.041	0	0.000	0
SO	SVP	2		B	1.723	2	2.000	2
SO	SP	1		D	1.589	2	1.302	1
SO	GPS	1		D	1.589	2	0.698	1
SO	Mitte	1		2	1.071	1	1.000
SO	FDP	1		A	1.044	1	1.000	1
SO	EVP	0		C	0.450	0	0.000	0
SO	GLP	0		C	0.450	0	0.000	0
SO	Andere	0		35	0.122	0	0.000	0
SO	SD	0		14	0.000	0	0.000
BS	SP	2		B	1.957	3	1.950	1
BS	GPS	1		B	1.957	3	1.050	1
BS	LPS	1		A	1.143	1	0.362	1
BS	GLP	0	-1	A	1.143	1	0.320	1
BS	FDP	0		A	1.143	1	0.242	0
BS	EVP	0		A	1.143	1	0.077	0
BS	SVP	0		C	0.563	0	0.000	0
BS	EDU	0		C	0.563	0	0.000	0
BS	Mitte	0		2	0.234	0	0.000
BS	Andere	0		35	0.103	0	0.000	0
BL	SVP	3	1	A	3.019	4	2.680	2
BL	FDP	1		A	3.019	4	1.320	1
BL	SP	2		B	2.429	3	2.135	2
BL	GPS	1		B	2.429	3	0.865	1
BL	Mitte	0	-1	2	0.741	0	0.000
BL	EVP	0		C	0.666	0	0.000	0
BL	GLP	0		C	0.666	0	0.000	0
BL	Andere	0		35	0.108	0	0.000	0
BL	EDU	0		D	0.036	0	0.000	0
SH	SVP	1		A	1.060	1	0.737	1
SH	FDP	0		A	1.060	1	0.230	0
SH	EDU	0		A	1.060	1	0.032	0
SH	SP	1		B	0.644	1	0.851	1
SH	GPS	0		B	0.644	1	0.149	0
SH	EVP	0		C	0.185	0	0.000	0
SH	GLP	0		C	0.185	0	0.000	0
SH	Andere	0		35	0.059	0	0.000	0
SH	Mitte	0		2	0.052	0	0.000
SH	FGA	0		12	0.000	0	0.000
AR	SVP	1		4	0.477	1	1.000	1
AR	FDP	0		1	0.357	0	0.000	0
AR	Mitte	0		2	0.159	0	0.000
AR	Andere	0		35	0.007	0	0.000	0
AI	Mitte	1		2	0.867	1	1.000
AI	Andere	0		35	0.109	0	0.000	0
AI	SVP	0		4	0.024	0	0.000	0
AI	SP	0		3	0.000	0	0.000
SG	SVP	5	1	A	4.276	5	4.839	5
SG	EDU	0		A	4.276	5	0.161	0
SG	SP	2		C	3.268	3	1.402	2
SG	GPS	1		C	3.268	3	0.954	1
SG	GLP	0	-1	C	3.268	3	0.644	0
SG	Mitte	2		2	2.260	2	2.000
SG	FDP	2		D	1.734	2	2.000	2
SG	Andere	0		35	0.270	0	0.000	0
SG	EVP	0		B	0.173	0	0.000	0
SG	SD	0		E	0.019	0	0.000	0
GR	SVP	2	1	B	1.588	2	1.926	2
GR	EDU	0		B	1.588	2	0.074	0
GR	SP	2		C	1.463	2	1.214	1
GR	GLP	0		C	1.463	2	0.427	0
GR	GPS	0		C	1.463	2	0.358	0
GR	Mitte	1		2	1.193	1	1.000
GR	FDP	0	-1	A	0.687	0	0.000	1
GR	EVP	0		7	0.051	0	0.000	0
GR	Andere	0		35	0.017	0	0.000	0
AG	SVP	7	1	A	7.926	9	6.448	7
AG	FDP	2		A	7.926	9	2.372	2
AG	EDU	0		A	7.926	9	0.180	0
AG	SP	3		B	5.126	5	2.563	3
AG	GLP	1		B	5.126	5	1.326	1
AG	GPS	1		B	5.126	5	1.111	1
AG	Mitte	2		2	1.920	2	2.000
AG	EVP	0	-1	C	0.554	0	0.000	0
AG	Andere	0		35	0.457	0	0.000	0
AG	PdA/Sol.	0		9	0.018	0	0.000	0
TG	SVP	3		D	2.418	3	3.000	3
TG	SP	1		C	1.525	1	0.403	1
TG	GPS	0	-1	C	1.525	1	0.335	0
TG	GLP	0		C	1.525	1	0.262	0
TG	Mitte	1		2	0.920	1	1.000
TG	FDP	1	1	B	0.792	1	0.814	1
TG	EVP	0		B	0.792	1	0.186	0
TG	Andere	0		35	0.177	0	0.000	0
TG	EDU	0		A	0.168	0	0.000	0
TI	SVP	1		B	2.284	2	1.055	2
TI	Lega	1		B	2.284	2	0.945	1
TI	SP	1		A	1.726	2	1.158	1
TI	GPS	1		A	1.726	2	0.842	1
TI	FDP	2		D	1.692	2	2.000	2
TI	Mitte	1	-1	2	1.414	1	1.000
TI	Andere	1	1	35	0.763	1	1.000	0
TI	GLP	0		C	0.121	0	0.000	0
TI	PdA/Sol.	0		9	0.000	0	0.000
TI	EDU	0		16	0.000	0	0.000
VD	SP	5		B	8.195	9	5.274	6
VD	GPS	3	-1	B	8.195	9	2.820	3
VD	PdA/Sol.	1	1	B	8.195	9	0.906	0
VD	FDP	5		C	7.890	9	4.847	4
VD	SVP	4	1	C	7.890	9	4.153	4
VD	GLP	1	-1	D	1.432	1	1.000	1
VD	Mitte	0		2	0.847	0	0.000
VD	Andere	0		35	0.379	0	0.000	0
VD	EVP	0		A	0.140	0	0.000	0
VD	EDU	0		16	0.117	0	0.000	0
VD	SD	0		14	0.000	0	0.000
VS	Mitte	3		2	2.831	3	3.000
VS	SVP	2		C	1.958	2	2.000	2
VS	SP	1		B	1.876	2	1.220	1
VS	GPS	1		B	1.876	2	0.717	1
VS	PdA/Sol.	0		B	1.876	2	0.063	0
VS	FDP	1		D	1.173	1	1.000	1
VS	GLP	0		E	0.163	0	0.000	0
VS	CSP	0		8	0.000	0	0.000
VS	Andere	0		35	0.000	0	0.000
NE	SP	1		B	2.027	2	0.888	1
NE	GPS	1		B	2.027	2	0.651	1
NE	PdA/Sol.	0	-1	B	2.027	2	0.461	0
NE	FDP	1		A	0.838	1	1.000	1
NE	SVP	1	1	C	0.718	1	0.963	1
NE	EDU	0		C	0.718	1	0.037	0
NE	EVP	0		D	0.313	0	0.000	0
NE	GLP	0		D	0.313	0	0.000	0
NE	Mitte	0		2	0.103	0	0.000
NE	Andere	0		35	0.000	0	0.000
GE	FDP	2		A	5.188	6	2.174	2
GE	SVP	2		A	5.188	6	2.119	2
GE	MCR	2	2	A	5.188	6	1.707	2
GE	SP	3	1	D	4.350	5	2.532	3
GE	GPS	2	-1	D	4.350	5	2.120	2
GE	PdA/Sol.	0	-1	D	4.350	5	0.349	0
GE	Mitte	1		2	0.979	1	1.000
GE	GLP	0	-1	B	0.809	0	0.000	0
GE	Andere	0		35	0.626	0	0.000	0
GE	EVP	0		C	0.048	0	0.000	0
GE	EDU	0		16	0.000	0	0.000
JU	SP	1		A	0.814	1	0.728	1
JU	GPS	0		A	0.814	1	0.272	0
JU	SVP	1	1	C	0.555	1	0.688	1
JU	FDP	0		C	0.555	1	0.312	0
JU	Mitte	0	-1	2	0.529	0	0.000
JU	GLP	0		D	0.048	0	0.000	0
JU	Andere	0		35	0.035	0	0.000	0
JU	EVP	0		B	0.018	0	0.000	0
JU	CSP	0		8	0.000	0	0.000

kanton	sitze_1_sum
ZH	36
BE	24
LU	9
UR	1
SZ	4
OW	1
NW	1
GL	1
ZG	3
FR	7
SO	6
BS	4
BL	7
SH	2
AR	1
AI	1
SG	12
GR	5
AG	16
TG	6
TI	8
VD	19
VS	8
NE	4
GE	12
JU	2

sitze_1_sum_sum
200

Szenario 2 min (Tendenz - 2 * STDDEV)

kanton	partei	sitze_1	delta	lv	sitze_lv_0	sitze_lv_1	sitze_0
ZH	SVP	10		A	14.331	15	10.307
ZH	FDP	5		A	14.331	15	4.693
ZH	SP	8	1	B	11.646	12	7.842
ZH	GPS	4	-1	B	11.646	12	3.684
ZH	FGA	0		B	11.646	12	0.360
ZH	PdA/Sol.	0		B	11.646	12	0.113
ZH	GLP	4	-2	C	4.452	4	4.000
ZH	Mitte	3	2	2	2.933	3	3.000
ZH	Andere	1	1	35	1.045	1	1.000
ZH	EVP	1		D	1.022	1	1.000
ZH	SD	0		E	0.571	0	0.000
ZH	EDU	0		E	0.571	0	0.000
BE	SVP	8	1	A	9.207	10	8.045
BE	FDP	2		A	9.207	10	1.955
BE	SP	5	1	B	7.545	8	5.263
BE	GPS	3	-1	B	7.545	8	2.737
BE	GLP	2	-1	C	3.538	3	2.135
BE	EVP	1		C	3.538	3	0.865
BE	Mitte	2		2	1.953	2	2.000
BE	EDU	1		D	1.025	1	0.921
BE	SD	0		D	1.025	1	0.079
BE	Andere	0		35	0.732	0	0.000
BE	PdA/Sol.	0		9	0.000	0	0.000
LU	SP	2	1	B	2.547	3	1.447
LU	GPS	1		B	2.547	3	0.860
LU	GLP	0	-1	B	2.547	3	0.693
LU	Mitte	3		2	2.511	3	3.000
LU	SVP	2		A	2.320	2	2.000
LU	FDP	1		C	1.388	1	1.000
LU	Andere	0		35	0.184	0	0.000
LU	EVP	0		D	0.042	0	0.000
LU	SD	0		14	0.007	0	0.000
UR	Mitte	1		2	0.624	1	1.000
UR	SVP	0		4	0.353	0	0.000
UR	Andere	0		35	0.023	0	0.000
UR	SP	0		3	0.000	0	0.000
SZ	SVP	2		A	1.434	2	2.000
SZ	FDP	1		D	0.786	1	1.000
SZ	Mitte	1		2	0.703	1	1.000
SZ	SP	0		B	0.546	0	0.000
SZ	GPS	0		B	0.546	0	0.000
SZ	Andere	0		35	0.381	0	0.000
SZ	EVP	0		C	0.150	0	0.000
SZ	GLP	0		C	0.150	0	0.000
OW	SVP	1		4	0.523	1	1.000
OW	FDP	0		1	0.477	0	0.000
OW	Mitte	0		2	0.000	0	0.000
OW	SP	0		3	0.000	0	0.000
OW	Andere	0		35	0.000	0	0.000
NW	Mitte	1	1	2	0.453	1	1.000
NW	SVP	0	-1	4	0.399	0	0.000
NW	FDP	0		1	0.148	0	0.000
GL	SVP	1	1	4	0.426	1	1.000
GL	Mitte	0	-1	2	0.312	0	0.000
GL	SP	0		3	0.234	0	0.000
GL	Andere	0		35	0.028	0	0.000
GL	GPS	0		13	0.000	0	0.000
ZG	SVP	1		C	1.296	1	0.700
ZG	FDP	0		C	1.296	1	0.300
ZG	Mitte	1		2	0.748	1	1.000
ZG	GPS	1		A	0.657	1	0.741
ZG	SP	0		A	0.657	1	0.235
ZG	EVP	0		A	0.657	1	0.024
ZG	GLP	0		B	0.186	0	0.000
ZG	Andere	0		35	0.113	0	0.000
FR	SP	2		D	2.443	3	1.769
FR	GPS	1		D	2.443	3	1.017
FR	CSP	0		D	2.443	3	0.213
FR	SVP	2	1	A	1.884	2	1.917
FR	EDU	0		A	1.884	2	0.083
FR	Mitte	1	-1	2	1.392	1	1.000
FR	FDP	1		B	0.931	1	1.000
FR	EVP	0		C	0.310	0	0.000
FR	GLP	0		C	0.310	0	0.000
FR	Andere	0		35	0.041	0	0.000
SO	SVP	2		B	1.723	2	2.000
SO	SP	1		D	1.589	2	1.302
SO	GPS	1		D	1.589	2	0.698
SO	Mitte	1		2	1.071	1	1.000
SO	FDP	1		A	1.044	1	1.000
SO	EVP	0		C	0.450	0	0.000
SO	GLP	0		C	0.450	0	0.000
SO	Andere	0		35	0.122	0	0.000
SO	SD	0		14	0.000	0	0.000
BS	SP	2		B	1.957	3	1.950
BS	GPS	1		B	1.957	3	1.050
BS	LPS	1		A	1.143	1	0.362
BS	GLP	0	-1	A	1.143	1	0.320
BS	FDP	0		A	1.143	1	0.242
BS	EVP	0		A	1.143	1	0.077
BS	SVP	0		C	0.563	0	0.000
BS	EDU	0		C	0.563	0	0.000
BS	Mitte	0		2	0.234	0	0.000
BS	Andere	0		35	0.103	0	0.000
BL	SVP	3	1	A	3.019	4	2.680
BL	FDP	1		A	3.019	4	1.320
BL	SP	2		B	2.429	3	2.135
BL	GPS	1		B	2.429	3	0.865
BL	Mitte	0	-1	2	0.741	0	0.000
BL	EVP	0		C	0.666	0	0.000
BL	GLP	0		C	0.666	0	0.000
BL	Andere	0		35	0.108	0	0.000
BL	EDU	0		D	0.036	0	0.000
SH	SVP	1		A	1.060	1	0.737
SH	FDP	0		A	1.060	1	0.230
SH	EDU	0		A	1.060	1	0.032
SH	SP	1		B	0.644	1	0.851
SH	GPS	0		B	0.644	1	0.149
SH	EVP	0		C	0.185	0	0.000
SH	GLP	0		C	0.185	0	0.000
SH	Andere	0		35	0.059	0	0.000
SH	Mitte	0		2	0.052	0	0.000
SH	FGA	0		12	0.000	0	0.000
AR	SVP	1		4	0.477	1	1.000
AR	FDP	0		1	0.357	0	0.000
AR	Mitte	0		2	0.159	0	0.000
AR	Andere	0		35	0.007	0	0.000
AI	Mitte	1		2	0.867	1	1.000
AI	Andere	0		35	0.109	0	0.000
AI	SVP	0		4	0.024	0	0.000
AI	SP	0		3	0.000	0	0.000
SG	SVP	5	1	A	4.276	5	4.839
SG	EDU	0		A	4.276	5	0.161
SG	SP	2		C	3.268	3	1.402
SG	GPS	1		C	3.268	3	0.954
SG	GLP	0	-1	C	3.268	3	0.644
SG	Mitte	2		2	2.260	2	2.000
SG	FDP	2		D	1.734	2	2.000
SG	Andere	0		35	0.270	0	0.000
SG	EVP	0		B	0.173	0	0.000
SG	SD	0		E	0.019	0	0.000
GR	SVP	2	1	B	1.588	2	1.926
GR	EDU	0		B	1.588	2	0.074
GR	SP	2		C	1.463	2	1.214
GR	GLP	0		C	1.463	2	0.427
GR	GPS	0		C	1.463	2	0.358
GR	Mitte	1		2	1.193	1	1.000
GR	FDP	0	-1	A	0.687	0	0.000
GR	EVP	0		7	0.051	0	0.000
GR	Andere	0		35	0.017	0	0.000
AG	SVP	7	1	A	7.926	9	6.448
AG	FDP	2		A	7.926	9	2.372
AG	EDU	0		A	7.926	9	0.180
AG	SP	3		B	5.126	5	2.563
AG	GLP	1		B	5.126	5	1.326
AG	GPS	1		B	5.126	5	1.111
AG	Mitte	2		2	1.920	2	2.000
AG	EVP	0	-1	C	0.554	0	0.000
AG	Andere	0		35	0.457	0	0.000
AG	PdA/Sol.	0		9	0.018	0	0.000
TG	SVP	3		D	2.418	3	3.000
TG	SP	1		C	1.525	1	0.403
TG	GPS	0	-1	C	1.525	1	0.335
TG	GLP	0		C	1.525	1	0.262
TG	Mitte	1		2	0.920	1	1.000
TG	FDP	1	1	B	0.792	1	0.814
TG	EVP	0		B	0.792	1	0.186
TG	Andere	0		35	0.177	0	0.000
TG	EDU	0		A	0.168	0	0.000
TI	SVP	1		B	2.284	2	1.055
TI	Lega	1		B	2.284	2	0.945
TI	SP	1		A	1.726	2	1.158
TI	GPS	1		A	1.726	2	0.842
TI	FDP	2		D	1.692	2	2.000
TI	Mitte	1	-1	2	1.414	1	1.000
TI	Andere	1	1	35	0.763	1	1.000
TI	GLP	0		C	0.121	0	0.000
TI	PdA/Sol.	0		9	0.000	0	0.000
TI	EDU	0		16	0.000	0	0.000
VD	SP	5		B	8.195	9	5.274
VD	GPS	3	-1	B	8.195	9	2.820
VD	PdA/Sol.	1	1	B	8.195	9	0.906
VD	FDP	5		C	7.890	9	4.847
VD	SVP	4	1	C	7.890	9	4.153
VD	GLP	1	-1	D	1.432	1	1.000
VD	Mitte	0		2	0.847	0	0.000
VD	Andere	0		35	0.379	0	0.000
VD	EVP	0		A	0.140	0	0.000
VD	EDU	0		16	0.117	0	0.000
VD	SD	0		14	0.000	0	0.000
VS	Mitte	3		2	2.831	3	3.000
VS	SVP	2		C	1.958	2	2.000
VS	SP	1		B	1.876	2	1.220
VS	GPS	1		B	1.876	2	0.717
VS	PdA/Sol.	0		B	1.876	2	0.063
VS	FDP	1		D	1.173	1	1.000
VS	GLP	0		E	0.163	0	0.000
VS	CSP	0		8	0.000	0	0.000
VS	Andere	0		35	0.000	0	0.000
NE	SP	1		B	2.027	2	0.888
NE	GPS	1		B	2.027	2	0.651
NE	PdA/Sol.	0	-1	B	2.027	2	0.461
NE	FDP	1		A	0.838	1	1.000
NE	SVP	1	1	C	0.718	1	0.963
NE	EDU	0		C	0.718	1	0.037
NE	EVP	0		D	0.313	0	0.000
NE	GLP	0		D	0.313	0	0.000
NE	Mitte	0		2	0.103	0	0.000
NE	Andere	0		35	0.000	0	0.000
GE	FDP	2		A	5.188	6	2.174
GE	SVP	2		A	5.188	6	2.119
GE	MCR	2	2	A	5.188	6	1.707
GE	SP	3	1	D	4.350	5	2.532
GE	GPS	2	-1	D	4.350	5	2.120
GE	PdA/Sol.	0	-1	D	4.350	5	0.349
GE	Mitte	1		2	0.979	1	1.000
GE	GLP	0	-1	B	0.809	0	0.000
GE	Andere	0		35	0.626	0	0.000
GE	EVP	0		C	0.048	0	0.000
GE	EDU	0		16	0.000	0	0.000
JU	SP	1		A	0.814	1	0.728
JU	GPS	0		A	0.814	1	0.272
JU	SVP	1	1	C	0.555	1	0.688
JU	FDP	0		C	0.555	1	0.312
JU	Mitte	0	-1	2	0.529	0	0.000
JU	GLP	0		D	0.048	0	0.000
JU	Andere	0		35	0.035	0	0.000
JU	EVP	0		B	0.018	0	0.000
JU	CSP	0		8	0.000	0	0.000

kanton	sitze_1_sum
ZH	36
BE	24
LU	9
UR	1
SZ	4
OW	1
NW	1
GL	1
ZG	3
FR	7
SO	6
BS	4
BL	7
SH	2
AR	1
AI	1
SG	12
GR	5
AG	16
TG	6
TI	8
VD	19
VS	8
NE	4
GE	12
JU	2

sitze_1_sum_sum
200

Szenario 3 max (Tendenz + 2* STDDEV)

kanton	partei	sitze_1	delta	lv	sitze_lv_0	sitze_lv_1	sitze_0
ZH	SVP	10		A	14.331	15	10.307
ZH	FDP	5		A	14.331	15	4.693
ZH	SP	8	1	B	11.646	12	7.842
ZH	GPS	4	-1	B	11.646	12	3.684
ZH	FGA	0		B	11.646	12	0.360
ZH	PdA/Sol.	0		B	11.646	12	0.113
ZH	GLP	4	-2	C	4.452	4	4.000
ZH	Mitte	3	2	2	2.933	3	3.000
ZH	Andere	1	1	35	1.045	1	1.000
ZH	EVP	1		D	1.022	1	1.000
ZH	SD	0		E	0.571	0	0.000
ZH	EDU	0		E	0.571	0	0.000
BE	SVP	8	1	A	9.207	10	8.045
BE	FDP	2		A	9.207	10	1.955
BE	SP	5	1	B	7.545	8	5.263
BE	GPS	3	-1	B	7.545	8	2.737
BE	GLP	2	-1	C	3.538	3	2.135
BE	EVP	1		C	3.538	3	0.865
BE	Mitte	2		2	1.953	2	2.000
BE	EDU	1		D	1.025	1	0.921
BE	SD	0		D	1.025	1	0.079
BE	Andere	0		35	0.732	0	0.000
BE	PdA/Sol.	0		9	0.000	0	0.000
LU	SP	2	1	B	2.547	3	1.447
LU	GPS	1		B	2.547	3	0.860
LU	GLP	0	-1	B	2.547	3	0.693
LU	Mitte	3		2	2.511	3	3.000
LU	SVP	2		A	2.320	2	2.000
LU	FDP	1		C	1.388	1	1.000
LU	Andere	0		35	0.184	0	0.000
LU	EVP	0		D	0.042	0	0.000
LU	SD	0		14	0.007	0	0.000
UR	Mitte	1		2	0.624	1	1.000
UR	SVP	0		4	0.353	0	0.000
UR	Andere	0		35	0.023	0	0.000
UR	SP	0		3	0.000	0	0.000
SZ	SVP	2		A	1.434	2	2.000
SZ	FDP	1		D	0.786	1	1.000
SZ	Mitte	1		2	0.703	1	1.000
SZ	SP	0		B	0.546	0	0.000
SZ	GPS	0		B	0.546	0	0.000
SZ	Andere	0		35	0.381	0	0.000
SZ	EVP	0		C	0.150	0	0.000
SZ	GLP	0		C	0.150	0	0.000
OW	SVP	1		4	0.523	1	1.000
OW	FDP	0		1	0.477	0	0.000
OW	Mitte	0		2	0.000	0	0.000
OW	SP	0		3	0.000	0	0.000
OW	Andere	0		35	0.000	0	0.000
NW	Mitte	1	1	2	0.453	1	1.000
NW	SVP	0	-1	4	0.399	0	0.000
NW	FDP	0		1	0.148	0	0.000
GL	SVP	1	1	4	0.426	1	1.000
GL	Mitte	0	-1	2	0.312	0	0.000
GL	SP	0		3	0.234	0	0.000
GL	Andere	0		35	0.028	0	0.000
GL	GPS	0		13	0.000	0	0.000
ZG	SVP	1		C	1.296	1	0.700
ZG	FDP	0		C	1.296	1	0.300
ZG	Mitte	1		2	0.748	1	1.000
ZG	GPS	1		A	0.657	1	0.741
ZG	SP	0		A	0.657	1	0.235
ZG	EVP	0		A	0.657	1	0.024
ZG	GLP	0		B	0.186	0	0.000
ZG	Andere	0		35	0.113	0	0.000
FR	SP	2		D	2.443	3	1.769
FR	GPS	1		D	2.443	3	1.017
FR	CSP	0		D	2.443	3	0.213
FR	SVP	2	1	A	1.884	2	1.917
FR	EDU	0		A	1.884	2	0.083
FR	Mitte	1	-1	2	1.392	1	1.000
FR	FDP	1		B	0.931	1	1.000
FR	EVP	0		C	0.310	0	0.000
FR	GLP	0		C	0.310	0	0.000
FR	Andere	0		35	0.041	0	0.000
SO	SVP	2		B	1.723	2	2.000
SO	SP	1		D	1.589	2	1.302
SO	GPS	1		D	1.589	2	0.698
SO	Mitte	1		2	1.071	1	1.000
SO	FDP	1		A	1.044	1	1.000
SO	EVP	0		C	0.450	0	0.000
SO	GLP	0		C	0.450	0	0.000
SO	Andere	0		35	0.122	0	0.000
SO	SD	0		14	0.000	0	0.000
BS	SP	2		B	1.957	3	1.950
BS	GPS	1		B	1.957	3	1.050
BS	LPS	1		A	1.143	1	0.362
BS	GLP	0	-1	A	1.143	1	0.320
BS	FDP	0		A	1.143	1	0.242
BS	EVP	0		A	1.143	1	0.077
BS	SVP	0		C	0.563	0	0.000
BS	EDU	0		C	0.563	0	0.000
BS	Mitte	0		2	0.234	0	0.000
BS	Andere	0		35	0.103	0	0.000
BL	SVP	3	1	A	3.019	4	2.680
BL	FDP	1		A	3.019	4	1.320
BL	SP	2		B	2.429	3	2.135
BL	GPS	1		B	2.429	3	0.865
BL	Mitte	0	-1	2	0.741	0	0.000
BL	EVP	0		C	0.666	0	0.000
BL	GLP	0		C	0.666	0	0.000
BL	Andere	0		35	0.108	0	0.000
BL	EDU	0		D	0.036	0	0.000
SH	SVP	1		A	1.060	1	0.737
SH	FDP	0		A	1.060	1	0.230
SH	EDU	0		A	1.060	1	0.032
SH	SP	1		B	0.644	1	0.851
SH	GPS	0		B	0.644	1	0.149
SH	EVP	0		C	0.185	0	0.000
SH	GLP	0		C	0.185	0	0.000
SH	Andere	0		35	0.059	0	0.000
SH	Mitte	0		2	0.052	0	0.000
SH	FGA	0		12	0.000	0	0.000
AR	SVP	1		4	0.477	1	1.000
AR	FDP	0		1	0.357	0	0.000
AR	Mitte	0		2	0.159	0	0.000
AR	Andere	0		35	0.007	0	0.000
AI	Mitte	1		2	0.867	1	1.000
AI	Andere	0		35	0.109	0	0.000
AI	SVP	0		4	0.024	0	0.000
AI	SP	0		3	0.000	0	0.000
SG	SVP	5	1	A	4.276	5	4.839
SG	EDU	0		A	4.276	5	0.161
SG	SP	2		C	3.268	3	1.402
SG	GPS	1		C	3.268	3	0.954
SG	GLP	0	-1	C	3.268	3	0.644
SG	Mitte	2		2	2.260	2	2.000
SG	FDP	2		D	1.734	2	2.000
SG	Andere	0		35	0.270	0	0.000
SG	EVP	0		B	0.173	0	0.000
SG	SD	0		E	0.019	0	0.000
GR	SVP	2	1	B	1.588	2	1.926
GR	EDU	0		B	1.588	2	0.074
GR	SP	2		C	1.463	2	1.214
GR	GLP	0		C	1.463	2	0.427
GR	GPS	0		C	1.463	2	0.358
GR	Mitte	1		2	1.193	1	1.000
GR	FDP	0	-1	A	0.687	0	0.000
GR	EVP	0		7	0.051	0	0.000
GR	Andere	0		35	0.017	0	0.000
AG	SVP	7	1	A	7.926	9	6.448
AG	FDP	2		A	7.926	9	2.372
AG	EDU	0		A	7.926	9	0.180
AG	SP	3		B	5.126	5	2.563
AG	GLP	1		B	5.126	5	1.326
AG	GPS	1		B	5.126	5	1.111
AG	Mitte	2		2	1.920	2	2.000
AG	EVP	0	-1	C	0.554	0	0.000
AG	Andere	0		35	0.457	0	0.000
AG	PdA/Sol.	0		9	0.018	0	0.000
TG	SVP	3		D	2.418	3	3.000
TG	SP	1		C	1.525	1	0.403
TG	GPS	0	-1	C	1.525	1	0.335
TG	GLP	0		C	1.525	1	0.262
TG	Mitte	1		2	0.920	1	1.000
TG	FDP	1	1	B	0.792	1	0.814
TG	EVP	0		B	0.792	1	0.186
TG	Andere	0		35	0.177	0	0.000
TG	EDU	0		A	0.168	0	0.000
TI	SVP	1		B	2.284	2	1.055
TI	Lega	1		B	2.284	2	0.945
TI	SP	1		A	1.726	2	1.158
TI	GPS	1		A	1.726	2	0.842
TI	FDP	2		D	1.692	2	2.000
TI	Mitte	1	-1	2	1.414	1	1.000
TI	Andere	1	1	35	0.763	1	1.000
TI	GLP	0		C	0.121	0	0.000
TI	PdA/Sol.	0		9	0.000	0	0.000
TI	EDU	0		16	0.000	0	0.000
VD	SP	5		B	8.195	9	5.274
VD	GPS	3	-1	B	8.195	9	2.820
VD	PdA/Sol.	1	1	B	8.195	9	0.906
VD	FDP	5		C	7.890	9	4.847
VD	SVP	4	1	C	7.890	9	4.153
VD	GLP	1	-1	D	1.432	1	1.000
VD	Mitte	0		2	0.847	0	0.000
VD	Andere	0		35	0.379	0	0.000
VD	EVP	0		A	0.140	0	0.000
VD	EDU	0		16	0.117	0	0.000
VD	SD	0		14	0.000	0	0.000
VS	Mitte	3		2	2.831	3	3.000
VS	SVP	2		C	1.958	2	2.000
VS	SP	1		B	1.876	2	1.220
VS	GPS	1		B	1.876	2	0.717
VS	PdA/Sol.	0		B	1.876	2	0.063
VS	FDP	1		D	1.173	1	1.000
VS	GLP	0		E	0.163	0	0.000
VS	CSP	0		8	0.000	0	0.000
VS	Andere	0		35	0.000	0	0.000
NE	SP	1		B	2.027	2	0.888
NE	GPS	1		B	2.027	2	0.651
NE	PdA/Sol.	0	-1	B	2.027	2	0.461
NE	FDP	1		A	0.838	1	1.000
NE	SVP	1	1	C	0.718	1	0.963
NE	EDU	0		C	0.718	1	0.037
NE	EVP	0		D	0.313	0	0.000
NE	GLP	0		D	0.313	0	0.000
NE	Mitte	0		2	0.103	0	0.000
NE	Andere	0		35	0.000	0	0.000
GE	FDP	2		A	5.188	6	2.174
GE	SVP	2		A	5.188	6	2.119
GE	MCR	2	2	A	5.188	6	1.707
GE	SP	3	1	D	4.350	5	2.532
GE	GPS	2	-1	D	4.350	5	2.120
GE	PdA/Sol.	0	-1	D	4.350	5	0.349
GE	Mitte	1		2	0.979	1	1.000
GE	GLP	0	-1	B	0.809	0	0.000
GE	Andere	0		35	0.626	0	0.000
GE	EVP	0		C	0.048	0	0.000
GE	EDU	0		16	0.000	0	0.000
JU	SP	1		A	0.814	1	0.728
JU	GPS	0		A	0.814	1	0.272
JU	SVP	1	1	C	0.555	1	0.688
JU	FDP	0		C	0.555	1	0.312
JU	Mitte	0	-1	2	0.529	0	0.000
JU	GLP	0		D	0.048	0	0.000
JU	Andere	0		35	0.035	0	0.000
JU	EVP	0		B	0.018	0	0.000
JU	CSP	0		8	0.000	0	0.000

kanton	sitze_1_sum
ZH	36
BE	24
LU	9
UR	1
SZ	4
OW	1
NW	1
GL	1
ZG	3
FR	7
SO	6
BS	4
BL	7
SH	2
AR	1
AI	1
SG	12
GR	5
AG	16
TG	6
TI	8
VD	19
VS	8
NE	4
GE	12
JU	2

sitze_1_sum_sum
200

Code

read "kantonsresultate.csv"
project k, p, proj_sum
read "listenverbindungen.csv"
join left
update lv = p where trim(lv) == ""
dup
project k, lv, proj_sum sum
project inline k, proj_sum_sum sum
read "kantone.csv"
join natural
extend sitze_lv_0 = proj_sum_sum / proj_sum_sum_sum * sitze
project inline k, sitze_lv_0 prf
extend sitze_lv_1 = floor(sitze_lv_0 * sitze_lv_0_prf)
project k, kanton, lv, sitze_lv_0, sitze_lv_1
join natural
project inline k, lv, proj_sum sum
extend sitze_0 = proj_sum/ (proj_sum_sum+0.001)* sitze_lv_1
project inline k, lv, sitze_0 prf
extend sitze_1 = floor(sitze_0 * sitze_0_prf)
read "parteien.csv"
join natural
read "letztewahl.csv"
join left
read "lvresultate.csv"
project inline k, s_sum sum
rename sitze_sum sitze_lv
join left
extend lv_0 = sitze * s_sum/(s_sum+0.001)
order k 1, sitze_lv_0 9, sitze_1 9, sitze_0 9
extend delta = sitze_1 - sitze_alt
update delta = "" where delta = 0
project kanton, partei, sitze_1, delta, lv, sitze_lv_0, lv_0, sitze_lv_1, sitze_lv, sitze_0
format sitze_0 "%1.3f", sitze_lv_0 "%1.3f", lv_0 "%1.3f"
print
dup
project kanton, sitze_1 sum
print
pop
project partei, sitze_1 sum
project sitze_1_sum sum
print

kanton	sitze_1_sum
ZH	36
BE	24
LU	9
UR	1
SZ	4
OW	1
NW	1
GL	1
ZG	3
FR	7
SO	6
BS	4
BL	7
SH	2
AR	1
AI	1
SG	12
GR	5
AG	16
TG	6
TI	8
VD	19
VS	8
NE	4
GE	12
JU	2

kanton	sitze_1_sum
ZH	36
BE	24
LU	9
UR	1
SZ	4
OW	1
NW	1
GL	1
ZG	3
FR	7
SO	6
BS	4
BL	7
SH	2
AR	1
AI	1
SG	12
GR	5
AG	16
TG	6
TI	8
VD	19
VS	8
NE	4
GE	12
JU	2

kanton	sitze_1_sum
ZH	36
BE	24
LU	9
UR	1
SZ	4
OW	1
NW	1
GL	1
ZG	3
FR	7
SO	6
BS	4
BL	7
SH	2
AR	1
AI	1
SG	12
GR	5
AG	16
TG	6
TI	8
VD	19
VS	8
NE	4
GE	12
JU	2

kanton	sitze_1_sum
ZH	36
BE	24
LU	9
UR	1
SZ	4
OW	1
NW	1
GL	1
ZG	3
FR	7
SO	6
BS	4
BL	7
SH	2
AR	1
AI	1
SG	12
GR	5
AG	16
TG	6
TI	8
VD	19
VS	8
NE	4
GE	12
JU	2

kanton	sitze_1_sum
ZH	36
BE	24
LU	9
UR	1
SZ	4
OW	1
NW	1
GL	1
ZG	3
FR	7
SO	6
BS	4
BL	7
SH	2
AR	1
AI	1
SG	12
GR	5
AG	16
TG	6
TI	8
VD	19
VS	8
NE	4
GE	12
JU	2

kanton	sitze_1_sum
ZH	36
BE	24
LU	9
UR	1
SZ	4
OW	1
NW	1
GL	1
ZG	3
FR	7
SO	6
BS	4
BL	7
SH	2
AR	1
AI	1
SG	12
GR	5
AG	16
TG	6
TI	8
VD	19
VS	8
NE	4
GE	12
JU	2

kanton	sitze_1_sum
ZH	36
BE	24
LU	9
UR	1
SZ	4
OW	1
NW	1
GL	1
ZG	3
FR	7
SO	6
BS	4
BL	7
SH	2
AR	1
AI	1
SG	12
GR	5
AG	16
TG	6
TI	8
VD	19
VS	8
NE	4
GE	12
JU	2

kanton	sitze_1_sum
ZH	36
BE	24
LU	9
UR	1
SZ	4
OW	1
NW	1
GL	1
ZG	3
FR	7
SO	6
BS	4
BL	7
SH	2
AR	1
AI	1
SG	12
GR	5
AG	16
TG	6
TI	8
VD	19
VS	8
NE	4
GE	12
JU	2

kanton	sitze_1_sum
ZH	36
BE	24
LU	9
UR	1
SZ	4
OW	1
NW	1
GL	1
ZG	3
FR	7
SO	6
BS	4
BL	7
SH	2
AR	1
AI	1
SG	12
GR	5
AG	16
TG	6
TI	8
VD	19
VS	8
NE	4
GE	12
JU	2